Thursday, August 6, 2009

Trading Forex Using Price Action " The Engulfing Patterns

By Tim Barnby

Few things are more satisfying to me that bare chart trading. Ive seen traders with so many indicators on their screen that I could not even see the price of the currency pair. What do any of these indicators tell you anyway? Do I need a MACD or a CCI? I can see which direction the trend is moving without them. How about a stochastic? I can see where candles are closing relative to the high or low. Other than some horizontal lines at key support and resistance levels, some Fibonacci retracements, and trend lines I often have nothing on my charts at all. All of these are topics for future articles.

A bullish engulfing pattern is characterized by having a real body which completely engulfs the real body of the preceding candle. A simpler way of describing this is that the bullish engulfing candle has a higher open and a lower close than the preceding candle. A bearish engulfing candle has a lower open and a higher close than the bar immediately preceding it.

The bullish and bearish engulfing patterns are powerful indicators of a trend reversal. Engulfing patterns must appear after a significant run up or down in price to be considered valid. When the engulfing pattern presents itself at a probable price reversal zone, or a confluence of support or resistance it is even more reliable. My experience has shown these patterns to be over 75% reliable, and normally offer at least a two to one reward to risk ratio when traded on the one hour or four hour charts. They are even more reliable on the daily and weekly charts.

There are a couple of valid methods for trading engulfing patterns. The first is pretty basic. You place a market order at the close of the candle. Your stop loss order goes a few pips past the opposite side of the engulfing candle, and the target goes somewhere at least twice the distance of the stop loss. Using this method, if the engulfing candle has a 50 pip range, your stop loss would be about 55 pips and your target would be about 110 pips away from your entry. The more advanced method involves pulling a Fibonacci retracement tool on the engulfing candle. Place your entry order at the 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci level of the candle, and place the stop loss in the same position as the first method. This method gives you a smaller stop loss, which offers you a much high per pip value, and a bigger target. It has a lower rate of successful fills, so youll have fewer trades using this entry method.

No matter what your method of entry is, you will profit from trading these powerful reversal indicators. Youll also save yourself the stress of conflicting technical indicators and cluttered screens. Trade this pattern for a week and see if I am wrong. - 23309

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Money Management Principles in Forex Trading (Part III)

By Ahmad Hassam

Perhaps the best advice that you will receive from someone is live to trade another day. Currency markets are brutal, volatile and ruthless. In minutes you can lose many pips. You should learn to survive in the markets in the long run. Do not lose all your money in a single day.

The most common factor that causes many currency traders and investors to blow up their accounts and lose all their money is greed. Once you start taking unnecessary risks you are in trouble. You want a secret formula that never loses a trade. You will start looking for the Holy Grail technical indictor or a forex robot that can make you rich. You will believe that by discovering one, you will become rich.

Unfortunately there is no Holy Grail for anyone in trading. You will win and you will lose. So you must learn not to risk more than 2% of your account on one trade. Grow your account incrementally over time. Never ever be tempted to risk big making one single winning trade that can make you rich.

You should know how much you are willing to risk in a single trade. I said 2%. But if you want to be aggressive you can go up to 5% but stay between 2-5%. Dont exceed it. If you are conservative, on the other hand, you should consider risking between 1-2% only.

Once you have decided on the amount of risk you are willing to take, the rest is simple. Suppose you have a $50,000 account. You decide on a risk of 2% only. How much you can risk on a single trade? (50,000)(0.02)=$1,000. This is the maximum amount you should risk on a single trade.

However, if you are in more than one trade at the same time, the amount may be higher. Suppose, you are in 3 trades and you risk only $1,000 per trade. So the total amount at risk will be $3,000. Once you have determined your risk level, you are ready to determine the trade size.

Trade size is the number of contracts you purchase in any one trade. To determine the trade size, you need to first determine where you want to put your stop loss. Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose you are willing to risk $1000 on trading EUR/USD pair. You decide on a stop loss of 50 pips. Each pip on EUR/USD pair is $10 worth. So the number of contracts that you need to trade are (1,000)/ (50) (10) =2.

Once you have determined your risk level and calculated the trade size, you have taken the guesswork out of your trading. Now, you can sleep well knowing how much of your amount is at risk and that you are going to be able to trade tomorrow, no matter what happens today.

Using these common money management rules will help you avoid the pitfall of losing almost all the money in your account. Learning to survive the markets and trade another day is the essence of trading. This can help your trading take the next level of profitability. - 23309

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