Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Trading Strategy - Descending Triangles Downside Breakout

By Jeff Cartridge

Descending triangles have been very popular with traders on the short side and are not so often traded when it breaks in the upward direction. A descending triangle is defined by two lines, one on the lower boundary of the price movement which is horizontal and one on the upper side which slopes down.

Descending Triangles, One Of The Best

Descending triangles are one of the most predictable patterns that are available to trade short. With 57% of the patterns breaking down descending triangles can deliver good returns when they do. The average gain is 0.92% in 9 days with about half of the breakouts (45%) being profitable. These results are good but selecting the right conditions can make trading descending triangles very attractive.

Specific Setups to Improve Profitability

When you look at the performance of a descending triangle in bearish market conditions you will see the results were stronger than they were in more bullish years. Trading descending triangles when the market is in a down trend or consolidating improves your trading results. The sector should be falling to make the most profits. Unusually the trend of the sector at the end of the pattern, prior to the breakout is less important than the sector trend at the start of the pattern.

Breakouts can occur anywhere along the length of the descending triangle pattern. Another key to picking successful short breakouts from descending triangles is to look for a turning point up from the lower boundary that fails to reach the upper boundary and then falls away.

If the volume supports the breakout the results are better. Supportive volume means the volume on the way down is higher than the volume on the way up.

Trading Descending Triangles Can Be Profitable

Incorporating these simple changes when selecting descending triangles to trade short, dramatically improves the results. With an average return per trade of 2.55% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% descending triangles are one of the most profitable patterns to trade on the short side.

Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23309

About the Author:

No comments:

Post a Comment