Saturday, October 17, 2009

British Pound Currency Profile (Part III)

By Ahmad Hassam

UK is the bridge between US and EU. UK tends to share a more common set of views with the United States. In the present financial crisis, both the US and UK government had worked closely to avoid a meltdown in the capital markets. Economically, the United Kingdom is more free-market oriented than Europe. However at the same time, given its history and its geography, the United Kingdom cant totally disassociate itself from Europe. The upshot is a currency that is affected by politics at home and on the two continents to which its destiny is so closely related.

The GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the world. 6% of the all the global currency trading involves GBP as either the base or counter currency. The British Pound GBP) is active against the dollar and the euro, offering good opportunities to trade both pairs (GBP/USD and USD/GBP).

The recent Financial Service Act has made the London capital markets one of the most efficient in the world. US capital markets still have oversight and regulatory confusions. This makes London an important destination for many foreign investors. One of the reasons for GBP liquidity is the countrys highly developed capital markets. GBP is also in the four most traded major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF in the world.

Many foreign investors seeking to diversify their investment other than the United States send their funds to the UK. In order to create these investments, foreigners need to convert their local currency into GBP.

A few years ago, GBP had one of the highest interest rates in the developed countries. Although Australia and New Zealand had still higher interest rates but their financial markets are not as well developed as UK. GBP was full of speculators one to two years back.

Carry trading was popular with many hedge fund managers. It is a long term fundamental trading strategy. Carry traders would use GBP as the lending currency taking advantage of the high interest rates and would go long against USD, JPY and CHF.

The BOE was forced to lower the interest rates to cope with the present financial crisis. The present global financial crisis has taken a heavy toll on the British Banks as well. There have been a number of high profile bankruptcies. UK Treasury had to intervene heavily in the market by pumping money into a number of failing banks in order to stabilize the financial markets.

Interest rates have been lowered. With the lowering of the interest rates, an exodus of carry traders took place that increased volatility in GBP. Interest rate differentials between UK gilts/US Treasuries is a barometer for GBP/USD flows and UK gilts/German Bunds is a barometer for EUR/GBP flow. These interest rate differentials are widely watched by the professional forex traders.

Will UK join EMU? This is an important question that still can determine the long term fundamentals of GBP. Indications on adopting the Euro usually put negative pressure on GBP while further opposition to Euro boosts GBP. The three month eurosterling futures reflect market expectations on UK interest rates three months into the future and can help predict fluctuations of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD tends to be more sensitive to the developments in the US economy. GBP/USD is more liquid than EUR/USD. However, EUR/GBP is the leading gauge for GBP strength. EUR/GBP is more pure fundamental pound trade as EU is the UK primary trading and investment partner. GBP has positive correlation with the energy prices. - 23309

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Want To Get Into Forex Trading?

By Kris Deaney

The Forex world is a very exciting place, with literally trillions exchanging hands every day throughout the world. It is also one that offers fantastic profit potential.

However, having said that, anyone looking to trade in the Forex marketplace needs to have a strong trading strategy and a very good broker.

One of the biggest reasons that you need to find a good broker to successfully trade Forex, is that there can be a big difference in the cost to trade with brokers. This is what is called the spread. The spread is the buy and ask price, or more accurately the difference between them.

Although the difference may seem quite small, if you are trading regularly, it quickly adds up. This is why it's really important to choose a broker with tight spreads.

After the spread, it's important to consider the potential liquidity that each broker will be able to provide. It's a big indication of the potential reliability of the trading platform.

The greater the level of the liquidity, the easier it will be to buy and sell at the exact prices that you want, or actually get quoted. Sometimes brokers will re-quote because they haven't been able to execute the trade at the price they initially quoted, it's also called slippage.

Brokers should also be able to offer a high level of customer service, as well as the opportunity for traders to use professional graphing tools, basically an environment so they can trade as if they were trading for banks. This is going to be essential if you want to trade for profits or to actually make it your living.

lastly, traders should consider the inherent quality of the trading platform itself. This is also key. It should certainly be easy to use as well as intuitive. I personally get on better with platforms that are web based. This means that I can be anywhere in the world, and all I have to do is log in online, and I can either trade or monitor my trades. - 23309

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Understanding Fibonacci Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

What is Fibonacci forex? Did you see the movie, The DaVinci Code? You will find a scene in the movie where the characters talk about the Fibonacci number as part of a clue or code of some sort.

Fibonacci trading techniques are based on a series that was discovered in the 13th century by an Italian Leonardo de Pisa. Over the years many interesting characteristics have been discovered on a few ratios derived from this series. The Fibonacci series starts with 0 and 1 and goes out to infinity with the next number in the series being derived by adding the prior two. What are Fibonacci numbers? For example, 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13, 8+13=21, 13+21=34, 21+34=55, 34+55=89, 55+89=144, 89+144=233, 144+233=377.

What is so fascinating about this series is that there is a constant found within the series as it progresses to infinity. The Fibonacci series is like this; 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610, 987..to infinity. This constant is known as the Golden Ratio, Golden Mean or Divine Proportion.

You will find the Golden Mean by dividing the higher number with the lower number by taking any two consecutive numbers in the series after the first few. For example, 89/55=1.618, 144/89=1.618, 233/144=1.618, 377/233=1.618, 610/377=1.618, 987/610=1.618 and so on. The inverse of 1.618 is 0.618.

The Golden Ratio can be found in many places in nature like flowers, shells, fossils etc. What is most important to forex traders is that applying these ratios can help identify key support and resistance zone in the market and therefore determine key trading opportunities or setups.

Thus the application of Fibonacci ratios can give you the edge as a forex trader if you use the Fibonacci trading technique properly. We have already discussed the Golden Ratios 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. The main ratios used in everyday analysis are 0.382, 0.50, 0.618, 0.786, 1.000, 1.272 and 1.618.

Since you are trying to look into a type of technical analysis, it is assumed that you have a computer, a market data source such as quote.com and a technical analysis program to manipulate that data. You should be proficient with the technical analysis program.

There are three types of Fibonacci price relationship namely, retracements, extensions and price projections (sometimes also called price objectives). We will look into Fibonacci Price Retracements, Fibonacci Price Extensions and Fibonacci Price Projections individually as well. The Fibonacci price analysis calculations can be done by hand as well but they are time consuming and tedious. So depending on a good trading software program is a good thing.

The definition of a support is the price area below the current market where you will look for a possible termination of the decline and where you would consider to becoming a buyer of whatever currency pair you are trading. Each of these Fibonacci price relationships will be setting up potential support or potential resistance in the chart that you are analyzing.

Support and resistance are two very important concepts used in trading. Resistance is price where the sellers overcome the buyers and the price starts to decline after reaching a high. It is the price area above the current market where you would look for the possible termination of a rally and consider being a seller. Fibonacci support and resistance levels as known as the leading indicators! - 23309

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What You Need To Know Before Buying Forex Software.

By Kareechy Ken

Buying software can be a bit troubling at times. We have all been there that eve n if we are computer savvy we don't know what to look for when it comes to the software that we need. The same thing might be true about forex software. So, here are a few things you should know before you buy forex software.

One of the first benefits of what you need to know before buying forex software is that while some might try to rip you off as to what you pay, many have a great paying system. You might question this, but let's break it down for you. You are given a manager where you must pay their commission price. Well, with many of these software programs, you don't have to pay the commission price; you just pay the bidding price. How great is that?

The trading business never closes. You can trade as long as you want to with this software. Its open twenty four hours a day seven days a week. Think about how much money you can generate with those operating hours!

There are risks to this. While there are benefits as well, remember there are risks. There are too many to count that there are plenty of articles that just focus on the risks that are involved. This is something that you really should know before you buy forex software.

You also want to make sure that the software that you choose matches the computer you have. They should tell you when you are getting ready to buy the program if it matches the computer system that you are using. This is extremely important.

Other sites and other services make you have a good portion of money in the bank before you begin. This isn't at all true with forex software. With just a little money to start with you can start trading foreign exchange currencies. It's really that simple.

With understanding the basics, you are ready. You are aware of what you need to know before you buy forex software. If you don't know that, then there are things you still need to look up so that you don't go wasting money or losing it for that matter. Have fun and be careful. It can be very tricky. Get started and look at the financial business you are in. Be aware of the things that could really bring you trouble when using forext trading. - 23309

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An Isaac Toussie Observation on Florida Real Estate

By Isaac R. Thompson

The current economic problems have visited Connecticut as well, but there is no condition of oversupply in the state; inventory levels have been consistent, probably due to Connecticut housing not being subjected to the amount of land speculation that other places have gone through, such as Florida and Nevada. While Connecticut maintains generally pro-business policies, there should be no danger of an exodus of commercial tenants, either. It has also definitely helped that media attention has been zeroed in on other states, given the panic-selling that's ensued elsewhere (which, again, has not gripped the Connecticut real estate market).

Connecticut has the most expensive estates in the country second only to California, with over three percent priced over a million dollars at the turn of this century. Most such residences are located in the northeastern part of the state, with median values assessed in the multiple millions, Isaac Toussie comments. The southwestern part lies within the greater metropolitan area of New York City. Indeed, three of Connecticut's eight counties form the Tri-State Region with New York and New Jersey. Despite the economic downturn in the rest of the nation, Connecticut real estate has not experienced too much turmoil. Though credit has tightened, inventory remains steady.

Statewide inventory of condominiums in Connecticut have stayed at consistent levels regardless of the economic downturn of late, which is a good omen that bodes well for the whole real estate market there. Thanks to government action that's maintained credit lines, there is actually some good news for those savvy enough to "connect the dots."

Mortgage interest rates have plunged dramatically and there is a tax credit stimulus package for first-time home-buyers, making $7,500.00 available. Finally, people have got to live somewhere, so any decline in the condominium market can only be temporary. This is a market with a lot of upside, notes Isaac Toussie.

The content of this article has been posted strictly for informational and human interest purposes only, not for advisory purposes, and should not be relied upon in any way by any person or institution. The reader should not rely on the validity of any of the information contained herein. The reader is urged to consult a variety of professionals when making business or any other significant decision, including accountants, lawyers, investment advisors, insurance companies and the like. Again, this article has been posted merely for human interest and informational purposes, not for advisory purposes. - 23309

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