Saturday, August 1, 2009

Global Macro and Investing in BRIC's

By Warren Gross

Brazil, Russia, India, and China are collectively known as the BRIC's. The paper in 2003 by Jim Oneil entitled The Path to 2050 brought the BRIC's to the forefront of emerging market investors. The idea is that by the year 2050 the BRIC nations will be as large and powerful if not more then existing super powers. Based on economic and demographic forces the paper might be right.

Now that these nations have embraced capitalism and started to throw out corruption they are able to better compete for investment capital with other nations. Due to this and the fact that they have huge and growing populations along with large natural resources and you have a good chance for a big move on their way to power and influence.

Brazil has grown up a lot over the last 20 years. Having been called the next growth engine since the seventies it appears as though Brazil has finally figured it out and is building a legitimate economy that has a solid banking system, several industries, and a huge oil industry. Having gotten rid of the majority of its Latin American corruption Brazil is well on its way to becoming a major force in the world economy.

Who else has oil and is trying to make the jump to developed status? If you said Russia you would be right. Since the wall came down in 1989 Russia has made some major leaps and bounds towards becoming a player in the world economy. The vast natural resources like oil is the primary economic driver but they are trying to expand and be more then a one trick pony. If rampant government corruption can be tamed Russia will be one of the great success stories of this century.

India has over a billion people. That in and of itself is not a big deal, except that they also have one of the largest bilingual populations on earth as well as a large educated segment. This has helped India to become first a humongous outsourcing giant and second to become a real and legitimate technology leader in its own right. They have scientists, engineers, and doctors who are rapidly becoming on par with their western brethren. The next ten and fifty years will be exciting as India continues to improve.

The last country on the BRIC list is not last because of potential but instead just for a catchy acronym. In fact if China can manage its growth right it may become the largest economy on earth over the next forty years. China has the people and is rapidly gaining the technological know how to do almost whatever it wants. The only caution is that government does not blow out the flame, but that is looking like a lesser and lesser problem. These nations have loads of potential for not only their citizens but also for global macro investors. - 23309

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