Saturday, November 28, 2009

Determining The Primary Trend

By Ahmad Hassam

A picture is worth more than a thousand words. Trading would be almost impossible without charts and technical analysis. Trading is all about anticipating and predicating rather than forecasting. Technical analysis is the best tool a trader can have.

Always remember, trend is your friend. Trading in the direction of the trend is the best trading strategy. Never try to trade against the trend. So determining the primary direction of the trend is highly importanct for you. Primary trend is the direction of the market that offers the least resistance forward making money. When you follow a primary trend in a bull market you look for strong stocks and in a bear market you look for stocks showing weaknesses. The most important thing that you should in a market is its primary trend. In order to determine the primary direction of the trend, you need to draw correct trendlines. This is an art that traders learn with experience. A wrong trendline means lost trades. You use the following tools to determine the primary trend! Knowing the primary trend and trading in its direction increases your chances of making money. So how do you find the primary trend and what tools you need to determine the primary trend?

Trendlines: Knowing how to draw and use trendlines gives you an excellent start on any trade. To correctly draw a rising trendline on the chart, start with the lowest low on the chart and connect it to the lowest low preceding the highest high in the chart without bothering about the prices between the two points. Similarly to draw the down trendline, draw a line connecting the highest high on the chart to the highest high preceding the lowest low of the chart without passing through the prices between the two prices.

Moving Averages: Moving averages are the most basic but the most widely used analytical tools in trading. Before you understand what a moving average is first try to grasp the concept of support and resistance. Support level is the price where the prices stop falling and the buyers step in overcoming the selling pressure. A break in the support level is an indication that more weakness may be ahead. Moving averages are used to smooth out the market's trend over a given period of time and serve as an important support and resistance levels.

Resistance level is the price where prices stop rising and the sellers overcome the buying pressure. A break above the resistance level is an indication that the market is going strong.

Oscillators: Oscillators are graphic depictions of points derived from the mathematical formulas that are plotted below the price charts. Knowing these mathematical formulas is not important as a trader. What is more important to know is the fact that oscillators produce useful mathematical data that can help you tell whether the market is overbought or oversold and whether the momentum of the primary trend in the market is still strong or there is a potential change in the primary trend ahead? Two important oscillators that you should be familiar with are RSI and MACD.

Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands are calculated by plotting points one or more standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average. However, you can calculate Bollinger Bands with any moving average. Bollinger bands are also known as volatility bands or envelopes. Bollinger bands give you visual evidence when the market has travelled too far in any one direction. After you identify the primary trend in the market, you should determine your trading timeframe. These timeframes are a sort of vague and can range from a few weeks to months. Short time frame for market timers is a few days to a few weeks. Long term time frame is something like six months. - 23309

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